Persia/Iran was a potential gateway or barrier for Russian goals. Intelligence analysis techniques and methods are used to draw logical conclusions and produce knowledge from this raw data. Terms amended 2014. if(fieldObj.name == 'Last Name') { Russia has a long-term project, known as the greater Eurasia partnership, and Iran is a project participant. Influence is Waning. The Syrian civil war disrupted the Iranian plans and placed the theocracy’s strategic agenda in jeopardy as the risk of Syrian President Assad being toppled escalated. return false; Understanding War.Retrieved from: http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/strategic-convergence-russia-and-iran, Geranmayeh, E. & Liik, K. (2016). Retrieved from:http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/61521. alert(fldLangVal[i] +' cannot be none. Now with the opposition shrinking and IS on the run in both Iraq and Syria, the question is what the post-war Middle East will look like. This knowledge is communicated to the highest levels of government through the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), defined as a strategic estimate of the capabilities, vulnerabilities, and probable courses of action of foreign nations produced at the national level as a composite of the views of the IC.1 The policymakers use the NIE to formulate strategic policies. The purpose of this alliance is to strengthen cooperation in order to resolve the issues in the region. And it looks increasingly likely that Iran and Russia will play a key role in that new order. An Admissions Advisor will be in touch within one business day to answer your questions. The Russian contribution was dramatic in creating a positive shift on the battlefield in favor of the Assad regime. What is more secretive is the Iran-Turkey-Russia alliance that is emerging and illustrated via state-controlled media. The longevity and future of the Russian-Iranian alliance is still debatable, but despite hopes and claims to the contrary, it’s not going anywhere soon. Russia and Persia/Iran have a legacy of over 500 years of intrigue, warfare, and diverging national interests mixed with periods of distrustful economic and diplomatic relations.2 Historically, two components of Russian foreign policy have been warm water ports and extending Russian influence into South Asia and the Middle East. Fact Sheet – Will China's Future be Cleaner? The Israeli army is seeing, more than in the past, cracks in the three-way alliance of interests between the regime and its two major patrons, Russia and Iran. Online education is an excellent resource to obtain the qualifications necessary to successfully compete in the strategic security and intelligence profession job markets. Retrieved from: http://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/iran_and_russia_middle_east_power_couple_7113, Basiri, A. Even though the Russia-Iran alliance appears robust, both countries’ divergent strategic visions could render the partnership unsustainable in the long-term. Washington should reassure its regional allies that they can count on its support and that it is taking these developments– and their concerns –seriously. var fldLangVal=new Array('First Name','Phone','Last Name','Email','State','Area of Interest'); However, the incomplete nature of the information often results in the intelligence analysis producing a divergence in the conclusions reached by the IC members and other groups performing the analyses. alert('Please select a file to upload. Russia, Iran, and Turkey are now collaborating. return false; Russia’s Long-Term Aims in Syria. ..Find out more, Posted by Andrew HollandNov 24, 2020 | Read More, Posted by Annie AlemanDec 03, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectOct 13, 2020 | Read More, Posted by Andrew HollandJun 24, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectJan 02, 2020 | Read More, Posted by Andrew HollandDec 11, 2019 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectNov 04, 2019 | Read More, Posted by Andrew HollandJul 12, 2019 | Read More, Posted by Andrew HollandMay 23, 2019 | Read More, Posted by Andrew HollandApr 22, 2019 | Read More, Posted by Andrew HollandMar 05, 2019 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectFeb 21, 2019 | Read More, Posted by Andrew HollandDec 11, 2018 | Read More, Posted by Connor WagnerOct 15, 2018 | Read More, Posted by Alicia OrrDec 03, 2020 | Read More, Posted by Matthew WallinDec 01, 2020 | Read More, Posted by Katie FoleyNov 25, 2020 | Read More, Posted by Olivia PoppNov 23, 2020 | Read More, Posted by Juan SotoNov 19, 2020 | Read More, Posted by Olivia PoppNov 18, 2020 | Read More, Posted by Benjamin PullenNov 16, 2020 | Read More, Posted by Patrick HinesNov 16, 2020 | Read More, Posted by Olivia PoppNov 13, 2020 | Read More, Posted by Alicia OrrNov 12, 2020 | Read More, Posted by Matthew WallinSep 29, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectSep 21, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectSep 01, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectAug 26, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectAug 19, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectJun 17, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectJun 03, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectApr 14, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectMar 19, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectDec 06, 2019 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectOct 16, 2019 | Read More, Posted by John MadeiraSep 11, 2020 | Read More, Posted by Matthew WallinFeb 28, 2020 | Read More, Posted by Alexandra HackbarthSep 27, 2019 | Read More, Posted by Andrew HollandSep 17, 2019 | Read More, Posted by Matthew WallinFeb 28, 2019 | Read More, Posted by Andrew HollandDec 19, 2018 | Read More. try { The two nations have a long history of geographic, economic, and socio-political interaction. if(fieldObj.type =='file') Trade between Russia and Iran has roughly doubled in the last year, with Iran claiming trade with Russia could soon surpass $10 billion. But even those who doubt the alliance differ in why it’s destined for failure. American Enterprise Institute. Open Democracy. Historically, Russia and Iran have never been a part of such an alliance (at least until recently). These new economic and commercial ties are changing the entire nature of Russo-Iranian cooperation, strengthening and deepening their alliance as the nations become more interconnected across numerous fields. 23rd June 2020. It signals the end of US absolute hegemony and control of the Middle East- and of the world. Fact Sheet – China's Fossil-Fueled Growth, Perspective – Choosing the American Model: Development Finance as a Soft Power Tool in Africa. } The Assad regime identifies as Alawite, an offshoot of Shia, making the Assad regime essential to build the ‘Shiite arc of influence’ in a Sunni-majority Syria. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu has accused Iran of building a missile factory in Syria as part of a plan to dig in and surround Israel, as well as claiming Russia is defending the factory with its advanced S-400 surface-to-air missile system. Neither Russian goal has changed in the 21st century. The Iranian Shia theocratic government has stated aspirations to extend Shia influence, and associated Iranian influence, through a ‘Shiite arc of influence’ from Iran across Iraq and the Levant. alert('Please accept '+fldLangVal[i]); However, this would also mean supporting a Saudi-led, predominately Sunni Muslim alliance, which has already made questionable decisions in Yemen and Qatar and could further aggravate Sunni-Shia tensions. Perspective – Beijing's Quandary: Clean or Dirty Growth? } US Secret Service Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), Strategic Security & Protection Management, Strategic Security and Protection Management, Bachelor of Science in Nuclear Enterprise Security/Studies, Integrated Munitions Effects Assessment-Conventional, Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC)-Nuclear, Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC)-CBR, Integrated Munitions Effects Assessment-Nuclear, The Russian aspiration to be the dominant influence in the region is in absolute conflict with the Iranian aspiration to be the dominant influence in the region 5,6, Russia and Iran share the goal to eliminate the Sunni terror groups: ISIS and al Qaeda 3, Joint Publication 1-02. The U.S. Constitution mandates that the government take actions to protect the citizens of the United States of America. The profound complexities of the Syrian conflict combined with the dramatic and rapid military and political evolutions provide an intelligence environment where biases can pervade the intelligence analysis process to support strategic security assessments. Such is the case in evaluating the current relationship between Russia and Iran. ..Find out more, Perspective – Arctic Climate Change: Implications for U.S. National Security, A melting Arctic is a more accessible Arctic—we are already seeing renewed great power competition in the region, as well as greater opportunities for natural resource exploration. var fieldObj=document.forms['WebToLeads2714955000000162013'][mndFileds[i]]; If the U.S. continues its inaction and disinterest, it will only provide an opportunity for Russia and Iran to further extend their reach and deepen their ties at U.S. expense. Others have asserted that Russia has little influence over Iran, and the two will naturally drift apart over time. For its part, Iran would have preferred Russia did not support sanctions at all. God has set aside two whole chapters in the Bible to warn all Mankind of this coming war.. GOD warns Iran (Persia), being fully directed, commanded, and controlled by Russia (Magog), along with a coalition of allies (including Turkey) WILL go to war and will attack and invade Israel.. Thus, the poignant observation was made by AEI that some Iranians characterized the current Russia-Iran relationship as one based on a mutual antagonism toward both the United States and Sunni radicalism2; this observation needs a response in the form of an objective intelligence analysis. Currently Russia and Iran act as economic partners to one anoth… For example, at the end of 2019, Russia, China, and Iran held exercises in the Gulf of Oman, and in 2015 even in the Mediterranean Sea, which is quite far from the coast of China, but close to the ports of Greece and Italy, which are gradually coming under the operational control of China. Iran-Russia Relations. As Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declares victory against a waning IS in the strategic town of Tal Afar, Iran has worked to extend cooperation and exert influence over its neighbor while Iraq has also sought deeper cooperation Russia in multiple areas. function checkMandatory() { In 2015, it looked as though the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was finally exhausted by four years of civil war, with both it and neighboring Iraq at the mercy of the rapidly expanding Islamic State (IS). Lavrov made it clear recently that expecting Russia to bloc Iran’s forces in Syria was “unrealistic.” Russia also failed to keep its promise to keep Iran’s forces more than 80 kilometers away from Israel’s border in the Golan Heights, and there are doubts whether it can make Iran … American Competitiveness & Economic Diplomacy, Disrupting the Russian-Iranian Rapprochement, As Climate Envoy, John Kerry will lead Climate Action from the National Security Council, Building Caribbean Resilience with Fossil Fuel Revenues, Sanctions on Nord Stream 2? Now, in 2017, the question is what the region will look like once IS and the moderate opposition in Syria are defeated. The U.S. needs its Middle Eastern partners to feel confident in themselves and U.S. leadership to unite and counter rising Russo-Iranian influence. Ancient Persia built empires to dominate much of the Middle East; however Persian power would recede in relative terms to the present, where Iran is a disruptive regional threat that does not have the capability to subjugate the collective nations in the region. var name=''; In that vein, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently held his sixth meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in two years, in the hope of persuading Russian to rein in its partner. var email=''; The joint drills are being carried out at the heart of the zone of US maritime influence. '); ..Find out more, Fact Sheet – Nuclear Arsenals of the U.S., Russia, and China, This fact sheet explores the basic statistics behind each country's nuclear capabilities and explores the prospects of Chinese inclusion in a trilateral nuclear agreement with Russia and the United States. Iran enjoys Russia as a strategic partner and a supplier of arms and military defense systems. Information, Knowledge, Policy. — Russia exports $2 billion of metal and machinery to Iran a year — Russia has supplied nuclear technology to Iran, including the $1 billion Bushehr reactor — Russia is a key supplier of arms to Iran, including a $700 million air-defence system, MiG29 combat aircraft and T72 tanks if (((fieldObj.value).replace(/^s+|s+$/g, '')).length==0) { '); The Gog of Magog Alliance Ezekiel identifies the nations in this alliance as "Magog, Rosh, Meschech, Tubal, Persia, Cush, Put, Gomer, and Beth-togarmah" ( Ezekiel 38:1-6 ). Iran’s military objectives in Syria and Russia’s contradictory positions. It might also lead to yet another double cross of one of the region’s largest ethnic groups, the Kurds. Retrieved from: http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/new_pubs/dictionary.pdf, Rubin, M. (2016). The Russia–Syria–Iran–Iraq coalition (RSII coalition), [citation needed] also referred to as 4+1 (in which the "plus one" refers to Hezbollah of Lebanon), is a joint intelligence-sharing cooperation between opponents of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) with operation rooms in Syria's Damascus and Iraq's Green Zone in Baghdad. } else if(fieldObj.nodeName=='SELECT') { Kozak argues that the mutual goals to reduce and even eliminate U.S. influence in the Middle East make for an enduring alliance between these historic enemies.3 The European Council on Foreign Relations reasons that the Russia-Iran relationship can continue for some time based on the mutual nature of certain goals for each nation.4  AEI argues that, while the current relationship has benefits for both sides, the history between the nations and the many conflicting national interests root the relationship in suspicion and distrust. The Strategic Convergence of Russia and Iran. Iran continued to invest money and manpower in the form of Shia militias recruited and paid for by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG). Relations between the Grand Duchy of Moscow and the Persian Empire (Iran), officially commenced in 1521, with the Safavids in power. China and Iran are rumored to be finalizing a $400 billion deal which would deepen economic, political, and militarily ties between two of America's chief adversaries. fieldObj.focus(); National American University is accredited by the Higher Learning Commission (hlcommission.org), a regional accreditation agency recognized by the U.S. Department of Education. The alliance between Russia, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Hezbollah became formalized in September 2015. Perspective – A Closer Look at the U.S. Strategy on Sanctions, Protecting Yourself from Disinformation in 2020, ASP COO Andrew Holland in High North News, U.S. Congress Gives Support for New Fusion Public-Private Partnership, Trump Administration Decision to Withdraw from Syria Another Sign U.S. Many experts have been quick to downplay the prospects of deepened cooperation between Russia and Iran. The envoy proposed an alliance of 5 states – Turkey, Pakistan, Iran, Russia and China. Yahoo – China, Russia, and Iran will hold joint naval drills starting Friday in the Gulf of Oman, Beijing and Tehran said, at a time of heightened tensions since the US withdrew from a landmark nuclear deal with Tehran. Some hypothesize that it can never go far enough, due to cautious attitudes rooted in historical mistrust and competition. if(fieldObj.checked == false){ '); 1, var mndFileds=new Array('First Name','Mobile','Last Name','Email','State','Industry'); name = fieldObj.value; } else if(fieldObj.type =='checkbox'){ The collected data is raw information and invariably includes uncertainties, conflicting data, and is an incomplete set of information. The needed information is identified as ‘intelligence requirements.’ The Intelligence Community (IC) agencies are tasked to collect information relevant to the requirements. This strengthening alliance is due in part to deepening economic cooperation. However, […] The prospect unsettles US allies like Israel, and Russia and Iran could attract other longtime U.S. partners like Egypt to their team. alert(fldLangVal[i] +' cannot be empty. Iranian military cooperation with Russia and China was on full display as they held large-scale joint drills in the northern part of the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Oman in December 2019. The “maritime security belt” trilateral four-day drill between Iran, China and Russia in the sea of Oman and the Indian Ocean will mark the Middle East for decades to come. Russia-Israel alliance grows, while Russia-Iran alliance frays in Syria Netanyahu’s statement, quoted above, confirms something that has been increasingly clear for at least two years: Israel’s alliance with Russia is growing, and Russia is doing nothing to … Perspective – U.S. Strategy in the South China Sea, By: fieldObj.focus(); This drastic turnaround in events is due in part to the combined military assistance of Russia and Iran. Trade between Russia and Iran has roughly doubled in the last year, with Iran claiming trade with Russia could soon surpass $10 billion. There is no universal agreement in open sources about the nature of the current Iran-Russia alliance. Mutual relations have often been turbulent, and dormant at other times. The U.S. Constitution mandates that the government take actions to protect the citizens of the United States of America. Henley-Putnam School of Strategic Security is a school within National American University. Retrieved from: https://www.opendemocracy.net/arab-awakening/amir-basiri/iran-s-military-objectives-in-syria-russia-s-contradictory-positions, Saadi, S. (2016). Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Image source: CNN. The top online schools feature faculty with practical operational experience, academic credentials, and offer a curriculum that focuses on intelligence management, terrorism and counterterrorism, strategic security, and protection management. if(fieldObj) { The China-Russia-Iran Arms Alliance ... That would set up another fight when Iran, China and Russia take the side of lawlessness at the highest echelons of a global institution. European Council on Foreign Relations. Still others claim it is fragile because it is based only on hostility to the US, with Iran dependent on Russia. To weaken the Russia-Iran … It appears the Iran-Russia relationship may be more robust than experts had thought. Since 2006, Moscow has sought to dilute sanctions against Iran. return false; if(fieldObj.options[fieldObj.selectedIndex].value=='-None-') { fieldObj.focus(); The U.S. has largely been silent on the emerging Russo-Iranian alliance, saving their criticisms for the Iran Nuclear Deal. The partners have not wasted time making moves for future. One of these actions is the formulation of strategic policies for the strategic security of the nation. }. An unusual triple alliance is emerging from the Syrian war — one that could alter the balance of power in the Middle East, unhinge the NATO alliance, and complicate the Trump administration’s designs on Iran. In turn, the Russians gained international prestige and a new level of influence in the Middle East. The unusual triple alliance coming out of Syria could change the regional balance of power and unhinge NATO — if it holds together at all. The eventual fate of the Russia-Iran alliance should be examined through the critical lenses of analytic methods such as analysis of competing hypotheses, Red Teams, outcome assessment, and timelines, to identify some of the analysis methods to bring clarity and objectivity to the conclusions. fieldObj.focus(); Henley-Putnam Faculty members are leaders from world renowned strategic security organizations: To request an application or get information about any of our strategic security programs, fill out the form below. One of these actions is the formulation of strategic policies for the strategic security of the nation. As the war turned increasingly against Assad, Iran intervened forcefully in 2013 by sending Hezbollah combat forces to turn the tide of battle. Even as Iran struggled to stave off a catastrophe for the Assad government, Russia saw an opportunity to boost Russian prestige and reassert Russian influence in the Middle East. Their relationship rests on a deep foundation of common strategic objectives and interests.” Their shared goals for the region include boosting Assad, seducing Western allies like Egypt and Turkey, weakening Western institutions, and reducing or destroying the West’s regional influence. return false; There will be a continuing demand for qualified individuals to fill positions across the 17 organizations that compose the IC. Russia-Iran: A Strategic Alliance of Enemies . Thus, the Syrian Civil War became both a secular political fight and a sectarian Shia-Sunni battle. ... Is the alliance of Russia, Turkey, and Iran a … But even without trade ties, for the near future, Russia and Iran simply have too much in common to be divided. (2016). In this situation, the fundamental differences between Russian interests and goals and Iranian interest and goals suggest that the Russia-Iran alliance is fragile in the short term and will not survive in the long term if the radical theocracy continues to pursue religious and political hegemony in the region. } Writing for Al-Akhbar, an Arabic daily newspaper, editor-in-chief Ibrahim al-Amin said that the five groups engaged in secret discussions and created a military alliance referred to as the ‘4+1.’ Join our mailing list to receive weekly newsletters and exclusive invites to upcoming events. { Or contact us directly at 888-852-8746, admissionsadvising@henley-putnam.edu1.888.852.8746 ext. This is a potentially dangerous move. And Russia’s dramatic entry into the conflict in 2015, providing air and battlefield support to Assad’s exhausted army, has been a life-saver for his regime. 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